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Ever aback our admission on baggage area companies aftermost year (29th May 2017), the stocks has had a arch run. In the accomplished one year, the banal prices of the two listed players, VIP Industries and Safari accept risen by 112% and 98% respectively. The banking achievement over this aeon is annihilation abbreviate of spectacular. The area is in the bosom of structural tailwinds. However, in the near-term apparent headwinds are apparent in the border as well. How should investors be positioned?

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FY18 angry out to be a dream year for both VIP Industries and Safari that saw appropriate advance in topline (although not carefully commensurable to the antecedent year on annual of GST implementation), advance in gross allowance that came on the aback of a stronger bill and bigger artefact mix thereby advice into able profitability.

While the topline achievement was optically a tad muted, VIP mentioned that the like-to-like advance for them in FY18 was 16.5%, abundant college than the appear number.

Both the companies larboard no allowance for accuse in the final division of FY18 as well.

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VIP saw acceptable absorption in all its four brands – Skybag, VIP, Aristocrat and Carlton as able-bodied as in its ladies haversack Caprese. This division saw actual able advance in haversack and the aggregation believes that admitting competition, this chic has huge potential. The administration mentioned the bazaar abeyant is as aerial as the cardinal of two-wheelers awash in the country. For VIP, all the channels, namely avant-garde trade, accepted as able-bodied as e-commerce did well. Canteen Store Department (CSD) that got acutely impacted column the accomplishing of GST is additionally stabilising.

Confluence of several positives like the appulse of amount backpack absolutely arena out, abridgement in GST amount from 28% to 18% and normalisation of channels as able-bodied as rupee acknowledgment had a absolute appulse on the appear financials of Safari as well. Although a abundant abate player, Safari is an advancing adversary to the bazaar leader, abnormally in the amount segment.

In the all-embracing baggage market, according to bazaar estimate, about 40 per cent is controlled by organised players. The oligopolistic attributes of the industry (dominated by VIP, Samsonite and Safari) and bit-by-bit about-face in customer alternative for branded baggage (also triggered by the accomplishing of Goods & Service Tax) augurs able-bodied for the organised players.

The advance of biking basement such as roads, airports and railway stations accept contributed decidedly to the development of the biking industry in India. Over the years, both calm and all-embracing air biking has apparent constant bifold chiffre growth.

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Aided by macro drivers like GDP growth, ascent claimed assets levels, alteration lifestyles, huge average chic as able-bodied as the availability of bargain air fares and assorted biking packages, India is rapidly acceptable one of the fastest growing outbound biking markets in the world. These trends accept a cogent absolute appulse on the abiding fortunes of the baggage industry.

In accession to these abovementioned drivers, baggage has additionally become an important allotment of the bells trousseau, with alike bodies in Tier II and III cities affairs branded accoutrements and strollers during the bells season.

The assimilation of baggage as a chic is abundant lower than added customer products.

A cogent allocation of the raw actual (especially for bendable baggage which is abutting to 75% of the market) is alien from China. Acknowledgment of the rupee in the accomplished accordingly had a absolute rub off on margin.

However, in contempo times, the area is faced with accompanying headwinds of firming up of ascribe prices and a abrasion of the rupee that adeptness aftereffect in burden on gross allowance unless the companies are able to canyon on the access to the consumers. Aback aftermost year, companies like VIP did abutting to double-digit amount hike, appropriately the adeptness to canyon on the amount burden in FY19 adeptness not be easy. Near-term burden on margin, therefore, cannot be disqualified out.

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While the bendable baggage dominates the markets now, a new trend account acquainted is the growing acceptance of polycarbonate adamantine baggage which is lighter and reduces the acceptation dependence.

Although the average to abiding angle is acutely absolute and the companies do not absolutely see a botheration in growing their revenue, investors got to accumulate in apperception the burden to near-term balance abnormally in the ambience of the valuation.

Given our abiding confidence on the business, we apperceive any weakness as an opportunity.

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